tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg October 23, 2017 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
vonnie: and live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. this is "european close on bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: here are the top stories we are covering from the bloomberg and around the world. the central banks are looming large with a possible unveiling of president trump's pick for fed chair. in asia, japanese prime minister shinzo abe and what his election the three means. -- election victory means. trump's tax plan building up momentum. plan i december possible? stocks are marginally higher for european stoxx 600.
in spain, down by 4/10 of 1%. all of the currencies are declining against the dollar. there is some corporate news today. surging sales in china helping to lift the touch equipment company's profit in the third quarter. sales are up 4% on a comparable basis, and just narrowly missing estimates. at focus, the 126-year-old dutch company is to help technologies. they have moved away from their historic roots in manufacturing lightbulbs, tv's, and compact disc players. shares are up by 1%. big news in japan. this is a great chart here.
it rose for a 15th straight day today, matching the run of gains seen in march 1988. shinzo abe's coalition retaining its majority in the election on sunday, signaling a continuity with that platform of one of terry easing -- monetary easing. day -- the nic ka once again. it is trading at its highest level in almost five years. this was the last election in 2012. this is the most overbought nikkei in about five years. julie: we are stalling out a little bit.
the s&p 500 was slightly higher earlier. the nasdaq moving more deeply into the red. there was an interesting note out this morning. that first. over at morgan stanley, a strategist look at the relative strength index for the s&p 500. as we look at these red and green lines as overbought and oversold for the major averages. but we are seeing now is that the relative strength index has been in overbought territory for 15 consecutive days as pointed out this morning. it is still at that level today, so it is now 16 days. he says that type of run is historically followed by a median decline of about 4.5% over the subsequent 30 days. still by the way able three years in -- he is still, by the way, a bull three years
in. we are at least seeing a positive for today. let's take a look at the groups on the move today. we have health care now up for the fifth straight session, and it is at a record today. materials are performing well. on the downside, we have industrials. we heard from abigail a moment ago about the weight of ge on industrials. morgan stanley among those downgrading general election -- general electric sales. they are trending lower after a new ceo was appointed but earnings came below estimates. we will have more on that coming up later this hour. finally, a couple of quick movers. amazon said they would make their handmade gift shop a standalone site, and so etsy is trading lower.
it will now be its own website, y investors ets are concerned about that. amazon it self is a little down on the session as well. mark, we are generally seeing a downdraft in the same stocks today. mark: let's get back over to prime minister theresa may's statements the parliament just a few minutes ago. minister may: i am positive about this process. if we are going to step forward, it must be on a joint process between the u.k. and the eu. i believe in approaching these negotiations in a constructive way. we can and will deliver the best possible outcome that works for all of our people. mark: joining us now is frederik
ducrozet, a senior economist at pictet wealth management. the prime minister stating some progress with post-brexit talks. aboutu more optimistic making progress between the u.k. and eu? would you say you are more deflated instead? >> let's face it, it is still a very messy process. , we do see thee ground shifting indeed for some sort of deal to a transition. transition a period being agreed on by the end of the year. i think some concessions will be made in order for sufficient progress to be made. , we are a bitly
worried about the long-term implications of brexit. at the beginning of next year, any such deal has to be agreed on also by the eu parliament later in 2019. that is where we are in it concerned-- a bit about moving staff abroad. that could be a binary concern for the u.k. economy. mark: is that what it is important to stipulate that a transition deal will be in place>? if there is not a transition deal announced, they are going to jump ship, aren't they? >> absolutely. they need to decide on their long-term plans. for that to happen, you need commitment on both sides. that they00% sure
would commit explicitly under any circumstances that such a deal can be made until later in 2019. there is this gray area in terms of uncertainty which cannot be good news for u.k. some are moving their money away from u.k. in their entirety. where are they seeing potential for opportunity? >> sorry, i could not hear the question. vonnie: are your clients moving away from britain until this all gets fixed? or do they think there could be some investment opportunities still in britain? economy?e u.k. vonnie: yes, your clients. >> again, looking at the
short-term and the conditions in which such negotiations will take place, i am not so worried about the divorce deals, settlement, all of these are part of the negotiations which will be looked at line by line. but for that to happen, even in the short term, you need some concession on the side of the u.k. you may also need some shifts in tone on the eu side. that is probably the way the it in order to sell any sort of deal back home with the hard brexiters. mark: let's get it forward a week. week.'s skip forward next will the bank of england raise rates next week? >> yes, indeed.
uncertainty to that degree in all dimensions of ae brexit framework, it is big bet to make. there is already a considerable amount of pressure, and there is little room for the consumer to acquire more debt to spend. i am a bit worried that the bank of england will move and start to normalize policy in that context. move will likely continue to hand at the process which in the context we judge -- we just described could prove to be a mistake.
frederick to present -- ducrozet will be staying with us. let's check in with the first word news and courtney donahue. courtney: president trump will meet with the controversial philippine president. he has been criticized for a bloody crackdown on drug dealers. he threatened to cut ties with both america and the european union's win and massacres complained -- win ambassadors complained. it would be a mistake for the fed to focus -- he writes that they "camouflage what is happening in the economy which could lead to dangerous miss cut delays and's -- miscalculations." in japan, shinzo abe gambled on election, andly
he went. his majority was held in the house. japan'sld make abe longest-serving leader. day have had a record 15th in a row. separatists are bowing to use human shields to keep spanish authorities from taking over buildings. he has announced that he will use unprecedented measures to read assert control over the region. atalan officials will meet again on thursday. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark? mark: what will mario draghi say about extending qe program and what it means for the european economy. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ mark: live from london, i am mark barton. the european close just 15 minutes away. vonnie: in new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: frederik ducrozet is still with us. you tweeted yesterday, "brace a ecb landmark decision on thursday. " frederick, let's get down to the nitty-gritty. we did a survey that suggests economist believe there will be a reduction the 30 billion for nine months. is that in tune with your thinking? >> yes, indeed.
i think the ecb's communication has been a remarkably clear and consistent for this future expansion of qe. it does not mean there could not be any surprise by the way. there could be some details december unveiled in when it comes to qe composition or investment policy which could all help to surprise the market. the bulk of the decision will be consistent with a longer qe extension. even the hawks at the ecb seemed to agree on that type of extension. whether it is slightly more at 35, it could only make a slight difference it comes to implication. mark: how important is stipulating an end date? the survey suggests it comes to september. is it wide at this juncture
given where inflation is to have an end date? >> i think it is way too risky not to. it isn't mario -- it is not in mario draghi's dna to take that type of risk in this juncture. ecb is more closely looking at the inflation. it is too risky also in terms of finance conditions. if they called a mandate to the program and committed to an end to the program now where the euro is, any further appreciation would put inflation out of that risk. i think that would be a mistake that the ecb will not make. enoughoes the ecb have troubles in its arsenal -- arsenal tos in its
survive the next recession? is it well-equipped enough to fight the next recession? >> you are asking all the right questions, and this one is the most difficult. it is too early to say, but i think the path of least resistance is to use the same tool as before. the new focus this week will be forward guidance on the reinvestment policy to keep the balance sheet at a constant size. just like the fed has been doing in previous years and core guidance when it comes to policy rates. i think the response will likely -- the main rate is at 0%, and it will likely remain low into 2019.
their believe will be first answer to the recession. mark: frederick, great to see you. frederik ducrozet, senior economist at pictet wealth management. vonnie: time now for your bloomberg business flash. $625 a share. $1.9 billion in total. services toication businesses in 18 countries. a big transaction in the insurance industry today. ae hartford will buy disability business for little less than $1.5 billion. they will added to their earnings next year. t-mobile is not using up on it and editors. they raised the low end of their -- is not easing up on competitors. they raised the low end of their guidance and their outlook.
they are in talks to combine with sprints. shares of general electric are once again lower today. morgan stanley and j.p. morgan are cutting their price targets for the stock. also, the new ceo faces a good than expected challenges in turning the company around. that is your is this flash for this hour -- your business flash for this hour. mark: coming up, noble agrees to sell off some of its oil business. what it means for the future of the struggling commodities trader. this is bloomberg. ♪
down about 80% this year. we are being joined now by bloomberg's executive editor for energy analysis. hello, stewart. problem here? >> i would say they are on my support. we have had some clarity on keep things. the number one is that they got , andtension on the debt yes they had sold the oil unit, but there was -- there were so many conditions attached. it is hard to tell how much they will actually come out with in terms of cash. the bonds are a little bit happier at the moment. mark: is debt restructuring likely? >> yes, that is certainly the expectation.
the market is saying, yes, you will have to restructure. the business is not operating well enough to pay off this debt in a timely fashion, so there will be a debt restructure. vonnie: it seems like the rating companies are not getting too excited about it. they do not think that bankruptcy is more of a possibility because of this deal? >> i believe at the moment the debt rating remains the same, but it was already at a rather low level. there is no doubt that this is a business that is struggling. they are already said going to report a whopping loss for the first quarter well over $1 billion. the shares are telling you that this is a company in which investors are very worried. vonnie: what is the plan? what is the ceo saying? >> i think it is much the same as it was before. trading business,
a little bit afraid, but it is nothing like it was. the old business is gone, the agricultural business is gone, so it is hard to see how much else they can sell. are particularly interest in specific is this is an not the whole thing, which is why you have this -- specific businesses and not the whole thing, which is why you have this complex structure. there are a lot of? surround the valuation -- there marks lot of question around the whole valuation. there is the radically a deal there. million there $4 about that noble would have to pay to go through. i think they would prefer that it go through. vonnie: stewart, thank you for joining us. mark: taking a look at european
equities trading as we go into the close. the first trading session of the week. stocks are rising today after falling. regaining for the third day after four. and on an eye on spain the ecb. trump's decision for the next fed chair. i believe you with the currency board. you can see the euro down against the dollar by about 0.8%. the close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ retail.
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technology, resources, utilities, leaving the advance. let's start with the euro, following -- falling for a second day. catalan separatists planning their next move after rajoy announced unprecedented measures to stop -- stamp his authority on the region. stretching of the program's remaining capacity as it wades through inflation. that's the bloomberg survey that was conducted. the euro has fallen 1.3% since september 7th's ecb meeting. 1.42 is where we are today against the u.s. dollar. the spread yield is down a couple basis points today, falling for a second day, the spread narrowing.
since the referendum, it has widened by five basis points. the bulk of the move happened within the first week following the referendum on sunday, october 1. we will keep an eye on that. we are at a high post referendum. roughly 133 basis points. this is a very simple chart, but very effective, the bloomberg-british pound index. index, bloomberg euro the yellow line. look at the difference in performance between the three. the pound index is up for the second day, but it fell last week for the fourth week in five. it has dropped 1.9% since reaching a four-month high on september 21. theresa may spoke before parliament a little earlier, trying to paint an encouraging picture of the ongoing negotiations, but her fragility was definitely underlined on sunday. the labor brexit spokesperson
issued her an ultimatum. accept major changes to her landmark legislation or accept defeat. the pound has gone nowhere this year, highlighting brexit concerns. but on the flipside, you have this hawkish rhetoric from the bank of england ahead of the boe meeting next week. the euro up by 8%. the dollar index down by 7%. how is it looking over their? -- there? vonnie: we have not talked to much japan yet. there was a snap election during which shinzo abe completely cemented his power. the yen is a little bit weaker versus the u.s. dollar today. our macro man says it should be trading around the 1.15 mark, according to his models -- the 115 mark, according to his models. this carefully.
37,are holding in at 2. 2.38. global macro movers. i wanted to point out turkey. the turkish stock index is down about 1.1%. notably, the lira is weaker as well. yields are much higher. there is a lot of selling of turkish bonds, a lot of volatility. thanks may be facing penalties from the u.s. for doing business may be facinganks penalties from the u.s. for doing business with iran. mark: let's chat about the yen falling today to its lowest months, more than three as japanese stocks climbed for a record 15 straight day -- 15th straight day, all this off the back of shinzo abe's win. on thea piece of earlier wonderful markets live section. cynic might wonder just how
much tangible policy action the abenomics revolution has produced." reformird arrow of remains largely confined to the quiver." would that be the general assessment? the first five years of abenomics was not a massive success, separate to the yen and separate to a lot of monetary policy easing? >> i think the point is that the third arrow, the one that should of, the markets has not amounted to a great deal so far. on the other hand, to say that we haven't achieved anything with the abenomics wouldn't necessarily be fair, because the economic strength -- signs of inflation finally might be starting to come through as well. --k: it's between 5% and
between 0.5% and 1%. paul in that ballpark. :expectations are rising. we have a long-term of abenomics, unchanged policy. a chance to finish what they started. maybe the market will get a little more confident. at the end of the day, a lot of what's important in inflation and faith confidence in the central bankers to be able to achieve their mandates. vonnie: we've gone from 108 to 113 in the yen in the last 5, 6 weeks alone. where does it go from here? paul: i think that policymakers would always like to see it weaker while we don't have inflation at the target yet. cameron is looking at models, looking at the rate differential, already suggesting the yen should be weaker. one thing that could make that move happen faster is the idea of japanese insurers starting to lift some of their currency hedges, starting to take them
off based on the fact that,, if treasury yields remain higher than jgb yields, but the dollar continues to strengthen against the yen, what's the point of having those hedges? if they remove those, that could put a lot more downward emphasis on the yen. it becomes a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy for a while. vonnie: i mean, this election result -- it was basically a win for shinzo abe in the wider sense as well as, in the sense that people believe these economic reforms are leading to better livelihoods, better wages, and inflation. paul: absolutely. economic confidence is starting to come back. we are seeing it in some of the numbers, not just the stock market, which is a very clear indicator, up for a 15th day, but also in things like the export data. it's a story that is gaining momentum. you can understand why it was a really great time to call a snap election, something we didn't
really enjoy in the u.k. mark: the other bigger geopolitical event which we have been studying closely is spain. the yield spread narrowing between spain and germany. that tells you no one is too worried, especially in the bond market. the euro coming down a wee bit ahead of the ecb. what's the consensus? is it contained crisis? paul: the spanish stock market is off a little bit -- or was off a little bit earlier today. the news is not fairly large at the moment. is them -- either the market is complacent or confident. it is hard for there to be too many risks there. they have taken steps to make it eight -- to mitigate risk. the rest of europe is behind the spanish government in terms of not wanting to commit this -- to prevent this breakaway.
they are keeping confidence in the spanish stocks and bonds. mark: great to see you. thanks for joining us. vonnie: let's check in now on the "first word news." : prime minister theresa may now wants an all in one brexit package. the prime minister would like to bundle talks about a transition period into trade negotiations. businesses have said they want to know as soon as possible. current trading rules will stay unchanged for two years after brexit day, march, 2019. there could be a vote in catalano on declarin -- in catalan on declaring independence. separatists say they will form human shields around the government's regional headquarters.
of two regionsrs in the northern part of the country claimed the victory in referendums to demand more autonomy from the state. the vote could strengthen the anti-immigrant party going into next year's national elections. and at fort bragg, north carolina, army sergeant bowe bergdahl goes before a military judge who will decide if you will get life in prison for walking off his post -- if he will get life in prison for walking off his post in afghanistan. the hearing is expected to take several days. day,l news, 24 hours a powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. vonnie: markets are on high alert for developments out of washington. now that the senate has adopted a budget resolution, the house can shift into tax overhaul mode. --gapore prime minister singapore's prime minister is meeting with president trump at the white house today.
that -- back to tax reform. joining us with more, kevin cirilli. talk to us about the tweet this morning. 401k'sweeting out that are off-limits. they are going to stay the way they are. kevin: it's good news to asset managers, including back rock -- black rock. there has been a small coalition urging folks not to use 401(k) payments upfront as a way to pay for president trump's $6 trillion plan on tax reform. he says, "there will be no change to your 401(k). this has always been a great and popular middle-class tax break that works and it stays." the sources that i speak with suggests that only would have been about $212 billion as a pay-for, but the white house is still using the state and local deduction tax as a way to taper tax reform. that would come in at about $1.3 trillion.
i got a copy of the white house talking points, in which they defended the reduction. alsoalking points, "we want the tax code to be fair in terms of eliminating state and local tax did options. why should someone in wyoming pay less tax than someone living in new york? it's just not fair." some republicans have spoken out notably against this, ben king and senator rand paul. looks fairly quiet there, yet it's going to be a busy week. talk to us about what happens next. kevin: lawmakers are scheduled to get back into congress later this afternoon, in which case they are then going to have to finally move the budget over the finish line to get that through. last week the senate passing that. there is a host of hearings all week. i'm told by a senior aide to a
republican member that house speaker paul ryan will be meeting with members of the republican study committee, a broad coalition of republicans, tomorrow. gary cohn will be meeting with them. president trump is still anticipating him to be on capitol hill as well. it's all about tax reform. vonnie: health care goes away. the fed chair nomination might come at some point as well? kevin: we are carefully tracking all of the latest developments on the fed chair race. it looks like president trump might opt to have some type of mixed pick, where he could have a combination of john taylor and, potentially, someone like a kevin warsh or a j powell. it will be interesting to see what goes on there. of the five names we have been reporting on, in addition to janet yellen and gary cohn, all would likely be advanced out of the senate banking committee, which has jurisdiction over this
from london and new york, i'm mark barton. vonnie: and i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." i hit for shares of general electric this morning. -- a hit for shares of general electric this morning. most analysts warning of an impending dividend cut. "gew column entitled investors need to settle in. it's going to be a grind." does that imply that this quarter was not it? it was not the kitchen sink quarter? >> they got a lot of that out of the way this quarter, but they date for november 13 an analyst-investor meeting. that's when we will get an answer on whether or not we will see the cut to the dividend. they will walk us through what
portfolio changes we might be seeing. inwill lay the groundwork terms of how bad some of these challenges are in some of ge's units. we could get more bad news than. this is really going to be a grind. you are going to have maybe another year of really tough quarters and challenges in the power and oil and gas business. at some point, you have to wonder whether those are more specular -- secular rather than cyclical challenges in this business. vonnie: so far, we've got downgrade from j.p. morgan and from morgan stanley today as well i believe,. everybody else seems to be pretty neutral or else haven't got around to it yet. brooke: there are a lot of positive analysts out there, but those analysts that have positive ratings through ge's slide -- it's been on this downward spiral for a long time, and a lot of these analysts have been saying, don't worry, everything's not that bad.
now we know it was actually worse than it seemed, worse than people thought. i think you have to wonder, ok, well, who got this right? some of that there's on the street have been proved correct -- of the bears on the street have been proved correct. mark: friday was the earnings day. shares ended higher. why are we taking the hit today? brooke: john flannery did a very good job on that conference call. he took responsibility. he was very frank about just how bad things were. the cfo sort of fell on his sword. he is leaving the company. he took a lot of responsibility. i think people were sort of relieved to see that. it's not ge trying to brush this under the rug. they are being very open about having some issues to work through, which is good. but just look at these numbers. these numbers are not painting a pretty picture. they are indicating that this is going to be a multiyear's worth
effort of restructuring and getting these businesses back on track. it's going to be a while before we start to see meaningful improvement. mark: does the breakup of ge help? brooke: i don't really think it does, because i don't think we are going to be talking about a breakup. you're talking about $20 billion worth of divestitures, which sounds like a lot, but in the context of ge, that's about 10% of the company's market cap. you will see some ancillary but thes get hived off, big ones, health care, aviation, power -- i don't think those are going anywhere, so i don't know how much that really changes the story at ge. doesn'tif the dividend change and there were ways laid out to pay for it, including cost reductions, will investors be fine with sticking with the stock? is it really all about the dividend? brooke: i think it's a very big part because ge has apart becaue
retail investment base and a lot of them on ge because -- them own ge because of the dividend. i don't know if they will be able to totally pacify these fears. john flannery may lay out a plan, ok, we are going to do xyz to raise cash. but cash flow is not strong at some of these businesses. some of that will work itself out next year, but you are still looking at a squeeze in order to continue paying the dividend. ge has done a lot of breaking up and getting rid of these businesses. at a certain point, that doesn't make sense. they're probably does need to be a rethinking of that. vonnie: -- there probably does need to be a rethinking of that. vonnie: you can read all of brooke's commentary on your bloomberg. mark: top of the "bloomberg business flash," a look at some of the biggest business news in right now.
netflix will pay to attract more subscribers. the biggest denominated debt sale for them right now. netflix will pay to attractever. netflix plans to spend up to $8 billion to produce and buy more content next year. antitrust investigation into german automakers has been stepped up. they are looking into allegations that carmakers colluded on technology for decades. bmw said it was rated last week -- raided last week. daimler said there was a possible cartel. that's your latest "bloomberg business flash." kei's winning streak in up to take on the relative strength of the dow jones? this is bloomberg. ♪
charts. you can access these charts on the bloomberg by running the function featured at the bottom of your screen. king -- kicking things off in london, the one, the only mark barton. mark: i never go first. you almost caught me unawares. the rally continues for the nikkei 225. look at this. it's a wonderful chart, very simple. the green bars are the run, the 15-day run. 1988,st winning run since since march 2, 1988. cast your mind back to 1988. i know where i was. i wasn't at bloomberg. it also closed at the highest since 1996. abe's ruling coalition retained its majority in the election. the gauge is also the most overboard in at least five years since abenomics began.
abenomics -- since abenomics began, the nikkei has more than doubled what abenomics has achieved. the yen is lower against the dollar by 20%. we've had fiscal stimulus, but whatl reforms, about inflation? as you know, it's a far cry from 2%. not mattering to the electorate right now, anyway. beautiful chart. taylor riggs, it's now your turn. taylor: the dow jones industrial average in the u.s. on friday, record highs. 53 record highs so far this year. you have to go back to 1995 when there were 70 record highs to get this level. are we overbought or oversold? we use this index, below 30 oversold, above 70, overbought. you have to go back 62 years to get that overbought condition. what does that mean? a chief market analyst says,
never short a high when the rsi is in this sort of trending market. that said, when you get to these goods -- market markets could take a breather. vonnie: can i say they are both excellent? i'm having trouble today. i was admiring mark's on a roll. getting a little peckish toward lunchtime here. it looks like a sushi roll. it's a ridiculous reason. mark barton wins today. mark: thank you very much, vonnie. take a quick peek at what happened to european equities today. we rose for the third day in four. i will leave you with this chart. this is bloomberg. ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york city, here are the top stories on the bloomberg and around the world we are following over the next city minutes -- 60 minutes. the wheels are in motion on capitol hill to overhaul the tax over but the debate details threatens to derail the effort. the search for the next fed chair continues. powell perhaps favored, president trump making comments to that effect, not ruling out the possibility of granting janet yellen another term. venezuela could be inching toward default. the country is late on $350 million of interest payments, and now it's government run oil giant owns a massiveay